Someone has put $ 11 billion on the fact that today Janet Yellen will surprise the market

Today, Janet Yellen will speak at the Jackson Hole summit, and a few hours ago someone bought a calendar spread for 10,750 futures contracts at a rate, apparently in the expectation that tomorrow the head of the Federal Reserve will surprise the market with the hawkish tone of his speech on financial stability . The deal amounted to almost $ 11 billion (about 10% of all open interest), and, according to Bloomberg, the position of this volume was opened on the eve of the presidential elections in the US at the beginning of last November. At the moment, the market takes into account in prices only a 30 percent probability of raising rates at the December meeting of the FOMC

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