Scotiabank: speculators added a “risk” in euros and a record sale of the Aussie

As follows from the latest data of the CFTC, the week before December 19, the volume of pure speculative shorts on the dollar fell by $ 6.6 bn at once to a 5-week low. And this happened mainly due to a sharp reduction in bull rates for the euro and the Aussie.
Reduction of net long in euro would look quite logical, considering the approach of the holiday period, in which investors usually want to reduce risks on the background of illiquid and multidirectional trade. However, it should be noted that this change in positioning was mainly due to the opening of new short positions, which in reality is an increase in risk. Whatever it was, we recall that in the previous reporting period, the net long for a single currency reached a 10-year high.
Really interesting events took place in Aussi, where from the middle of the year speculative positioning remained stably moderately bullish, and suddenly in the week before December 19, everything changed dramatically, and positioning became clearly bearish. The scale of this change in the speculative mood turned out to be a record one since 2007, and we do not see any fundamental justification for this.
In other currencies, in general, little has happened, and only the net short position on the franc declined significantly (by $ 1.4 billion).

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *